With the departure of Spirit, the industry was quick to jump in and show their support: cabin crew and pilots from various airlines in the USA offered their sympathies, AI-generated images of cartoon aircraft in US airline liveries hugging a yellow aircraft popped up all over social media, Southwest even put on a celebration for what would’ve been a Spirit pilot’s final flight. And of course, airlines jumped in to help stranded passengers.

But don’t let that fool you. Airlines were very willing to put on a sorry facade for stranded Spirit passengers, a small price they have to pay for what’s to come: raising fares.

Spirit has always been the pseudo “how low can you go” standard in the industry. With that bar removed, airlines are free to increase prices, especially to make up for the gap that Spirit left in the market. And this increase in ticket prices is all too welcome in today’s day and age where fuel is at a scarcity due to the war in the Middle East. As airlines try to cope with rerouting flights, they have to juggle the increase in fuel prices and operation costs simultaneously. For many, it has proven too much, with airlines adjusting (mostly reducing) frequencies to optimize profits in this troubling time.

Of course, it’s always easy to raise prices when things are bad, but we also know when things go well, prices do not necessarily come down again. In fact, we need things to go super downhill, like a global pandemic, to bring the industry to a standstill before airlines bring ticket prices down out of desperation.

Case in point: the Middle Eastern airlines are proving again that desperation drives airlines to their knees. It has been no secret that the ME3 have been struggling recently due to the war. While they do not have a fuel shortage, it’s been an operational mess for them. Thriving on a hub-and-spoke model of connecting passengers through their hubs, many passengers have opted for different routes due to the uncertainty of war in the area. With insurance companies not covering travel disruption for war-related incidents, after clearing the backlog of stranded passengers, the ME3 are now trying to fill up their planes again. The emails I have gotten from Qatar Airways have been more than usual, and it’s clear they’re trying their best to throw various promotions at me to get me flying with them again.

But closer to home, an airline did the unthinkable. While airlines across the world continued to raise prices, Cathay Pacific announced that they were lowering the fuel surcharge. Not by much, but enough to give passengers a bit of a breather. With Cathay Pacific only just coming out of the red, I am surprised by such a move, but in an industry where everyone is raising prices, such a move is a breath of fresh air. Not only that, Cathay Pacific has been rather upfront that they would review the fuel surcharge situation every two weeks, allowing passengers to even plan whether they should buy a ticket or wait for a lower fuel surcharge.

I myself have been the unfortunate victim of Cathay lowering prices after I bought a ticket. I swiftly cancelled my ticket and bought a new one at a higher fare class but lower cash price. As the drop in fuel surcharges is minimal, I doubt passengers would cancel their tickets to buy new tickets at the lower surcharge. The lower surcharge is also only available for tickets originating in Hong Kong, which already carry one of the highest price tags for cancellation fees.

But where this move really stands out as a diamond against a black sky, is that airlines are actually capable of lowering prices. It’s only a matter of whether they want to.

Unlike my previous experience where my ticket price went down almost unnoticed, Cathay decided to go public with such information, playing the transparency card. Maybe they’re doing it for marketing, maybe they’re playing it safe in case they need to raise fuel charges again in the future, but I do hope that this tiny gesture can send a big message to airlines: we know you can drop prices.

For those who don’t know, Al Baker was the CEO of Qatar Airways. Or a rather controversial one. His antics ranged from threatening manufacturers with aircraft paint issues to rather questionable human rights practices with his cabin crew. Either way whether these accusations are true or not, one cannot deny that he grew Qatar Airways into a global powerhouse of an airline it is today. For example, their business class product called QSuite, is still considered one of the very best business class seats in the world. Its base at Hamad International Airport in Doha boasts some of the world’s most impressive airline lounges owned by Qatar Airways.

I have a rather special relationship with Qatar Airways. Back in 2022 in the middle of Covid I had a family emergency I needed to attend to in South Africa. With all flights being down, Qatar Airways was the only available option I had. After I flew them, I was hooked and realised I could obtain airline status very quickly with them as well. As a result, they are the airline that gave me my first ever (and thus far only) business class experience when I upgraded with miles. I was spoiled and I could finally see what all the hype was about. So whether or not all the accusations against Al Baker are true or not, from an experiential standpoint, I can certainly say that he transformed Qatar Airways into a very strong airline worldwide.

Now how about Lufthansa? Would he be a good fit? If he were to become the next CEO at Lufthansa, it would certainly be an adjustment for him.

Al Baker has made it very clear he is against the idea of a premium economy cabin. Whereas the likes of Emirates have fully embraced the product, he stated publicly that he will not install a premium economy class into the airline. Lufthansa on the other hand has lots of premium economy seats, and not just Lufthansa only but also all the airlines in its group. It would not make economic sense if he were to remove all the premium economy class seats, a product which Lufthansa and its group airlines have invested heavily in already. But how would he utilize the product should he inherit it? He may have to adjust to it.

Talking about the airline group, Al Baker doesn’t have the best history when it comes to airline groups. If he were to lead Lufthansa, an airline which has operated within the Lufthansa group consisting of many European airlines, he’d have his work cut out. He’d have to liaise with not only Lufthansa, but also its entire portfolio of airlines which include Austrian, Swiss, Eurowings, Discover, Edelweiss, and now also ITA Airways.

Sure, it has invested in airlines such as Cathay Pacific, but when it comes to running airlines as a group his track record is a bit more muddied. For example, there was the case of Al Maha, the failed start up that was meant to feature a green oryx instead of burgundy, which was due to operate in Saudi Arabia. But when Qatar Airways joined the oneworld alliance in 2013, Al Baker also had frequent spats with fellow alliance members, often threatening to quit. While his disputes were often within reason, a public dispute doesn’t look very good in terms of PR.

And finally, also the point that led to this speculation on the podcast, is that while Al Baker was serving at Qatar, he had some questionable labor rights practices, especially among the cabin crew. There were reports of discrimination and surveillance among crew members. While he defended this as “cultural norms”, similar practices will not fly in Europe, especially with Lufthansa struggling with labor unions and strikes. Al Baker would have to find another way to deal with labor practices. He may have been able to enforce a “my way or the highway” leadership style in the Middle East, but as we have seen in the news recently, this would lead to full on airport or airline shutdown resulting from union strikes. He would have to tread more carefully if he were to operate an European airline.

And an airline based it Europe is also another ball game. Qatar Airways is famous for offering a full service meal on its regional flights, one might even be lucky to get a long haul QSuite product on a short 30 minute flight. But with European airlines saving on regional flights (blocked middle economy seat for Euro business anyone?), I don’t think he would accept the reality thereof that easily. Again, he could decide to change it up, but with Lufthansa having such an established network already, it may not make financial sense to revamp the business model completely.

But talking about operating in Europe, in Qatar Al Baker also had the task of answering to the Qatari government: using an airline to put Qatar on the map. But Lufthansa is not a state-owned airline that receives massive cash-injections from oil rich governments. It has to answer to stakeholders who demand profit margins. In Germany, under the Mitbestimmung (co-determination) law, labor union representatives actually make up 50% of the Supervisory Board. The very unions Al Baker historically fights would literally be his bosses.

Despite these massive cultural and structural hurdles, this environment is also precisely why he would be a good fit. Where he essentially built Qatar Airways from the ground up, this has already been done at Lufthansa. Instead of focusing on development, he could focus his energy on efficiency and streamlining operations. With the sheer amount of subsidiaries Lufthansa owns, he could very easily slim them down.

Although he had Airbus issues at Qatar, being headquartered in Europe would give him access to Airbus factories and facilities fairly easily. While he’s known for being picky about aircraft and how he wants them delivered, being in the middle of action, right at the manufacturing, would cut the lead times and facilitate easy communication with aircraft manufacturers. This would also suit his aggressive growth leadership style and achieve results much quicker.

And that is why, despite his history, ironically he would be a good fit at Lufthansa. Al Baker, though controversial, is famous for one thing, he gets the job done. While there was no official reason for him leaving Qatar, I speculate that there was something he wanted done and couldn’t get done, so he stepped down to possibly save face. But while it may look like an uphill battle at Lufthansa, I think he may be great and exactly what the airline needs right now.

I remember when I was doing my MBA, my professor asked me why I was so interested in aviation. I told him that, among other things, I was fascinated by aircraft liveries.

He scoffed. “Who cares about a livery? Will you actually choose an airline based on what it looks like?”

His question has always boggled me. It might sound like something trivial to an academic, but in the aviation world, airline liveries hold a special place. And as it turns out, they hold a special place in the real world, too.

Recently, I took a flight on Airlink. I was lucky enough to have the all-black “Skybucks” special livery on the Embraer E195 operating my flight. That black fuselage stood out dramatically on an apron full of standard white aircraft. I was even luckier to have a bus gate for my flight. As we stepped off the bus, I noticed something: even the non-AvGeeks (i.e., normal people) were stopping to take non-stop photos of our special-liveried jet.

While I agree with my college professor that a fresh coat of paint may not immediately deposit money into an airline’s bank account, it is undoubtedly a core marketing asset. It leaves a lasting impact on anyone who comes into contact with it.

Take my four-year-old daughter, for example. She may not know which specific airline she flew with last month, but she remembers the “green aeroplane” and the “red aeroplane.” She also knows that next time, we might be able to take the “blue aeroplane.” Now, just imagine her sheer excitement as a massive Hello Kitty fan when she saw the famous EVA Air Hello Kitty-themed jet taxi across the airport. She is already associating colors and characters with airplanes. When she gets older, she will associate those feelings with specific airlines.

It’s no wonder that airlines leverage the power of special liveries as a marketing tool. For Cathay Pacific‘s 80th anniversary this year, they painted two aircraft in historical retro liveries. They’ve actively encouraged the public to take photos and post them online with the hashtag #80yearstogether. The strategy is working. Even my non-AvGeek friends have pointed out to me that Cathay Pacific has something special in the skies this year. It is absolute, unfiltered free marketing and brand awareness.

Special liveries have taken the forefront in the industry this year, with major airlines launching designs to please both AvGeeks and everyday passengers alike. With Lufthansa’s centenary this year, many think their special 100-year livery is possibly the most beautiful paint job ever to adorn a Boeing 787. So much so, that Lufthansa decided to replicate the livery on other aircraft types to celebrate the milestone. Meanwhile, the new Taiwanese luxury carrier Starlux just collaborated with Japanese artist Hajime Sorayama to launch striking gold and silver “AIRSORAYAMA” liveries that have just left the paint shop and will enter service soon.

But liveries also hold a special place for traditional legacy carriers, bringing a sense of national pride for the countries they represent. These aircraft are often draped in national colors and symbols that evoke a deep emotional response from citizens around the world. While I’ve been away from South Africa for a while, I still treat South African Airways as my home airline, despite all the troubles they’re going through right now. They still have one of my favorite Euro-white liveries, and I remember the distinct sense of national pride that bubbled up whenever I saw them flying overhead while landing in Hong Kong.

When these iconic liveries are replaced or altered, a similar sense of disbelief and disappointment often surfaces. When we returned to Taiwan for the first time in seven years, my mom noticed that China Airlines had replaced the flag on their tail with a plum blossom. While she is no artist, her disgust for the new logo was palpable.

Similarly, while the blue and white of Lufthansa’s centenary livery drew widespread praise, the same couldn’t be said when they replaced their classic yellow crane circle with the navy-and-white design found on their standard livery today. That classic yellow disc had been associated with Lufthansa for decades, and removing it in 2018 simply didn’t sit right with many who shared an emotional bond with the airline.

Air India experienced something similar in 1990 when their CEO decided to remove the traditional “Flying Palace” painted windows for something a bit more “modern.” A public outcry and boycott followed, and the airline swiftly brought back the signature windows. Unfortunately, this didn’t fully carry through during their 2024 rebrand and merger with Vistara, though there is still a subtle nod to the arched windows in their new design.

So, to finally answer my professor from back in the day: No, a livery does not directly print cash for an airline. But it isthe face of the airline, and many of us form a genuine emotional bond with it. It doesn’t just represent a corporation; it represents the people who have a connection to it.

Special liveries create a unique opportunity to generate brand awareness (take that, marketing professor) that resonates with AvGeeks, expats, grandmothers, and toddlers alike. So, while it may not be the most important bullet point on an executive’s agenda, I will always prefer an apron full of good liveries over a sea of pure white aircraft.

Over the past three weeks I took eight flights, totaling up to 50 hours. I spent one week away from my wife and kids on a work trip in Australia, one week with them on a holiday in Malaysia, and then made another emergency trip home to South Africa to take care of some affairs and visit my parents and friends as well.

As an AvGeek, it was awesome. I got to fly on five different aircraft types, I got to try one new aircraft type and one new airline. I also got to visit a bucket list lounge for the first time.

But as a dad, it’s been difficult to be away from my kids. In Malaysia, my son was crawling around, but when I got back from South Africa, he was walking. I missed that.

This tension is something I struggle with. I am a self-proclaimed AvGeek from the OG days. The first flight I took in my retrievable memory was in June 2002. We got to fly a Singapore Airlines Boeing 747-400, dubbed ‘MegaTop’. The 9-hour flight from Johannesburg to Singapore took forever for a little 10-year-old boy, but the excitement of getting in a tube and flying high above the clouds outweighed the weird uncomfortable feeling of ears popping and zombified jet lagged behaviour.

But the trip sparked something within me. Why was it called ‘Megatop’ when the second leg of our trip was on the ‘Jubilee’? Who were these beautiful looking ladies looking after us on the plane? What exactly is a terminal and why is there a Terminal 1 and Terminal 2?

Down the rabbit hole I went. My dad travelled a lot and I got a collection of paperback timetables and inflight magazines, most of which are still stacked in the corner of my wardrobe back home. My most prized possessions are still my assortment of amenity kits I begged off my dad or from overseas guests who succumbed to my weird gift requests.

I started drawing planes, designing my own liveries and fantasy airline lounges (which I never got to enter into). I uploaded hundreds of designs on Cardatabase’s aviation designs in my teenage years. We weren’t wealthy and a career as a pilot would never be on the cards for me.

I studied Finance followed by an MBA, and my dream of starting my own airline clashed with reality. I did manage to write and publish a paper on Flight Delays as my graduating paper, but knowing whatever goes behind running an airline not only gained my respect but made me realize that my little hobby would never become more than that. I got married, had kids, and life carried on. While the aviation world was at a standstill, I started my database of airline livery history and played airline simulator games, wishing that flights could return to normal.

Fast forward a few years to being a dad with a full-time job, and I am still proud to be an AvGeek. I now find myself in Hong Kong, an airport city with a rich aviation culture and history. I am fortunate enough to see Boeing 747s still flying in the sky, though they are mostly cargo types.

After travelling for three weeks, I realize that maybe I still have something within me that can make a difference to the AvGeek world. I won’t be able to score airline miles and fly first class. Even if I had enough miles, the redemption tickets are always blocked out in the school holidays anyway.

But being an AvGeek dad has been so rewarding for me. With all four grandparents living in different countries than us, we had to take the kids to visit them. My daughter is at an age where she starts to recognize different coloured planes, looking up at the sky to search for them when we walk to school. Her newest fascination is folding paper jets - it keeps her entertained. I had to explain to her once that our plane didn’t have TVs and an inflight meal because we flew low-cost instead of full service. I just hope that one day she will realize how fortunate she was to fly so many times already at such a young age.

I realize that the meaning of being an AvGeek may have changed. Some may think that it is all about flying in First and Business class, but there is still a select few of us that just like planes. We check the registration and tail numbers and bump into people when we look up at the sky. We pay attention to the weirdest detail that an everyday person would overlook and we geek out about plane liveries or make our own.

Of course, I am extremely grateful to the many influencers that popped up over the years and brought the aviation industry to the forefront of our lives, but most of us are incredibly happy just to fly Economy class and that shouldn’t stop anyone from being an AvGeek.

I don’t fly a lot, and it took me a long time to make peace with it. When I do fly, I tend to fly economy or the quickest way to keep everyone in my family sane. But I hope that as I’m busy typing this on my iPad sitting on my couch after I’ve just put my kids to bed on a Friday night after a long week, I can bring a little bit of my AvGeek spark to those who can’t fly every week, but still call themselves AvGeeks.

I have no idea where this will lead me, but I hope I can write whenever I can. I’m planning to write in three sections (don’t ask why I chose G, it just worked):

• The Geek Seat: where we can just all geek out about plane stuff

• The Boarding Gate: where I can write about the occasional flight I had or my opinion on passenger experiences

• The Ground Lounge: where I’ll try and put my MBA skills to good use and write about recent developments in the industry.

All of this is from the perspective of an AvGeek Dad on the Ground, so welcome aboard AvDOG.

Cabin crew, please be seated for takeoff.

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